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Cómo cierra el balance del 2020 para familias y comercios

Los fuertes desajustes que le tocó vivir a la economía del país en el 2020, impulsó muchas de las líneas de crédito para poder sostener las actividades.

Un 2020 para el olvido: cuánto creció el endeudamiento de las familias y los comerciantes

Durante el transcurso del 2020 se observó que el total de préstamos en pesos al sector privado mostró un crecimiento real, es decir logró aumentar sus valores por sobre los índices de precios, luego de un 2019 castigado por las altas tasas y una contracción de los saldos en términos ajustados por inflación, se observa una recuperación del endeudamiento.

Así lo indica un informe de First Capital Group que analiza el cierre 2020 de cada línea de crédito.

Dentro de esta lógica, según el informe, hubo distintos comportamientos de las principales líneas y fuertes contrastes entre las mismas que explican de alguna manera los fuertes desajustes que le tocó vivir a la economía de la Argentina.

Por un lado, los préstamos comerciales representaron al sector más dinámico, donde están los mayores valores de incremento, los cuales prácticamente duplican los valores de la inflación del período. 

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El incremento para el primer semestre fue de 18% alcanzado un incremento anual de 83,18%, $424.099 millones.  

«Comenzaron el año con un tímido repunte, pero la llegada de la pandemia obligó a las autoridades a reforzar los estímulos a los Bancos para que reemplacen la baja de ingresos de sus clientes con mayores financiaciones en condiciones subsidiadas, así fue como vimos durante los meses de marzo, abril y mayo una expansión del 50% de los saldos, justo en el momento que el ASPO paralizaba la actividad privada. Los últimos meses del año transcurrieron con un alza moderada de acuerdo a una actividad que se recupera de a poco», explicó Guillermo Barbero, socio de First Capital Group.

2020: crece 47% el endeudamiento familias y comerciantes2020: crece 47% el endeudamiento familias y comerciantes

Por su parte las tarjetas de crédito tuvieron también un año positivo, pero en valores mucho más cercanos al incremento de precios, al cual a pesar de la pandemia superaron. 

El primer semestre, lograron un 36,3% de incremento, cerrando el año con un aumento del 47,28%. 

«En este rubro pesó mucho la casi nula actividad de operaciones que impulsan el uso del plástico como el turismo, el esparcimiento y las actividades culturales, no obstante, las facilidades para refinanciar los consumos en hasta doce meses con tres de gracia que en más de una oportunidad estableció el BCRA, dio origen al incremento de los saldos. Terminan el año en un franco recupero de sus valores», agregó.

Qué sucedió con los préstamos personales

Los préstamos personales sufrieron un fuerte retroceso en términos reales durante este año. 

«El aumento de la desocupación trajo aparejado un doble efecto sobre el rubro: por un lado, los Bancos extremaron la cautela a la hora de otorgar nuevas financiaciones a una población con mayor riesgo crediticio y por el otro lado la falta de un horizonte económico despejado retrajo las nuevas solicitudes de endeudamiento por parte de las familias. Aquí también vemos un final de año con mayores expectativas de crecimiento y recuperación», aseguró Barbero. 

Esta línea de créditos tuvo un incremento anual apenas del 11,78%, es decir $ 48.902 millones.

En el renglón de los préstamos prendarios el informe destacó dos momentos bien diferenciados: una primera mitad de año con baja actividad industrial y comercial de los bienes sujetos a garantía y por ende un retroceso de los saldos, y una segunda parte con el impulso que recibieron las ventas de rodados ante la baja del precio de los mismos medidos en dólares. Así el balance del año muestra incrementos en línea con al alza de los índices de inflación, alcanzando un incremento anual del 30,31%, $ 23.833 millones.

A su vez, en lo que se refiere a los préstamos hipotecarios, estos mostraron un estancamiento durante todo el año, cerrando el año en valores negativos del -0,15%. 

«Ni siquiera la baja en los valores del costo de la construcción medidos en dólares, lograron impulsar alguna recuperación del sector. Terminamos el año con saldos nominales por debajo de los que teníamos al inicio del mismo y con una serie de variaciones mensuales que no auguran ninguna recuperación por ahora», finalizó Barbero.Datos informados por el Banco Central respecto al stock al 21-12-2020Datos informados por el Banco Central respecto al stock al 21-12-2020

En cuanto a los préstamos nominados en moneda extranjera, terminamos el año con un saldo total que es la mitad del que había al inicio del mismo. 

Muchos factores influyeron para esta brusca baja: la caída de los depósitos en dólares dejó sin sustento la capacidad prestable de los Bancos, la suba de las cotizaciones de la moneda extranjera hicieron más riesgosas las operaciones, así como la creciente dificultad del sector privado para acceder a divisas para efectuar los pagos comprometidos. Y por último, los deudores escaparon de estas líneas ante la posibilidad de una devaluación brusca del tipo de cambio.

Fuente: iProfesional

Cochería Alarcón

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